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Custom Intelligence02 · we arm you

Data is for two things: making money and saving it.

Custom Intelligence is the census with the judgment already in it, from people who run these negotiations every day. Point it at the money you are trying to save.

Dip a toeThe judgment is free before it is aimed. Nominally Hedged is the weekly newsletter where we show the thinking before we sell it. Read a few, then decide how involved you want us.Read Nominally Hedged →
What arrives built · for operators

Your biggest recurring cost line, run through the machinery before the letter goes out.

Every counterparty that answered, put on one schema and priced to a single number. Compression is where most of it runs, but the machinery does not care which cost line it is pointed at. You walk into the readout knowing the move, the savings, and the reason.

Runs onCompressionChemicalsWaterRentalsAny LOE line
01 — the line-item all-in
Your current structure against every bid, on one number.

Every cost element normalized to one unit rate at a common basis, so a cheaper-looking bid at an easier spec cannot hide. The recommended column is the lowest credible all-in that covers your future need and lands on time.

$/MMcf = all-in ÷ (throughput × days × uptime)
Station 07 — facility all-inIllustrative · redacted
Throughput
13 MMcfd
100% eligible
Current
Recommended
Vendor A · saves $57K/mo
Current
3 units · 4,930 HP · all incumbent
Rate$110.0K
Fuel$71.2K
Skid+meth$6.1K
$306
$/MMcf · 13 @ 96%
Vendor A
Recommended
Keeps 2 of 3 · covers 107% · online now
Rate$74.0K
Fuel–$20.9K
Demob$0
$156
$/MMcf · 13 @ 96%
Vendor B
All new · covers 123% · online now
Rate$104.0K
Fuel–$20.3K
Demob$0
$216
$/MMcf · 13 @ 98%
Vendor C
All new · covers 100% · Feb 2027 late
Rate$107.0K
Fuel–$20.3K
Demob$74.5K
$224
$/MMcf · 13 @ 98%
02 — the portfolio board
The whole book on one schema: where to move, where to hold.

Every location, every bidder, the all-in in one grid. Green is the recommended move; red costs more than staying put. You see the portfolio, not sixteen separate decisions, and you sequence the moves that matter first.

16 competitive locations · all-in $K/mo by vendor
Portfolio — all-in $/mo by vendorIllustrative · redacted
LocationCurrentVendor AVendor BVendor CVendor D
Loc 02248244215180285
Loc 0711659843889
Loc 11104501042
Loc 149637404541
Loc 19895910558109
Loc 238561455050
Loc 286557363938
Loc 3135305732
green = recommended (lowest credible, covering, on-time) · red = costs more than current
03 — the value bridge
What it returns, by lever and on unit cost.

Where the savings actually come from, and what happens to the number that matters: cost to serve. On this book the portfolio pays less every month while serving more.

gross savings ÷ lever · portfolio unit cost, current → recommended
Gross savings by lever · $/mo
Rental$230K
Fuel$196K
Skid$24K
Methanol$4K
$454K/mo · roughly $5.4M a year
Cost to serve
Current$5,889 /MMcfd
Recommended$4,125 /MMcfd
Net–$281K/mo · +37 MMcfd
–30%
unit cost · pay less, serve more
Same machinery · a different cost line
A chemical vendor pushed a 10% blanket surcharge across 21 products.

The should-cost model priced every product family against its own feedstock indices. Roughly 6% was justified; seven of nine categories were overstated. The surcharge was rejected and the counterproposal held.

Vendor proposed10%
Should-cost justified~6%
$384K
avoided, per year
110x
the fee
Memorandum — where the fee sits

The engagement books where the value lands. Work tied to a specific facility or AFE capitalizes into the well; the recurring read is typically chargeable to LOE under COPAS, not G&A. It is allocable to the cost centers it defends, and your accountants make the final call.

And the whole engagement costs less than a month of LDAR on your producing wells.

That is the frame we hold ourselves to: a should-cost line, not an overhead line. If the read cannot clear its own fee against a routine compliance cost, it should not run.

COPAS 2005 / 2014 · ASC 932 · SEC Reg. S-X 4-10(c) · not accounting advice
Request pricing

The first step is a conversation, not a PDF.

Send a note and we book a thirty-minute working session: your cost line, your counterparties, your targets, and the first read on the board with the names on it.

Thirty minutes. We come with a read, not a deck.
The membership · Ground Truth
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